tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2859090234987178525.post7651834623245046767..comments2023-06-08T06:37:16.848-07:00Comments on There Are No Fours: Racing Like a Pro NowRough Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09697369830879236743noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2859090234987178525.post-67764977323915566972009-12-15T10:56:22.110-08:002009-12-15T10:56:22.110-08:00Sure, that's fair. I guess what I'm gettin...Sure, that's fair. I guess what I'm getting at is that my feeling here (not definitive or provable knowledge) is that Belichick got wrapped up in being that tough coach making that unconventionally "wise" call and didn't have his fingers on the team's pulse or his head in the game in the psychological and philosophical way that transcends the numbers...i suppose the argument can't really be made, it's creation vs. evolution.David Sankeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17155408225468153928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2859090234987178525.post-38062863976693254502009-12-14T17:54:27.557-08:002009-12-14T17:54:27.557-08:00"Don't get me wrong, the numbers don'..."Don't get me wrong, the numbers don't lie, but neither do they tell the whole truth."<br /><br />I had a feeling I might get called out on this, and I'd be lying if I didn't admit that this is the point on which I vacillated most before landing. Maybe this is a side-effect of being strongly on the statistics side in my baseball fandom, but I think that emotional impact, while real, is easy to overemphasize. I'm not sure how to quantify the effect existential crisis has on a red zone defense, and I'm not convinced that it impacts a tackler mid-play. <br /><br />More importantly, the only emotional impact of the decision Bill Belichick has to consider is that on his team, and he can create the culture he wants there. If he emotionally cut his team's legs out from under them, it's his fault for not instilling a Patriots culture that understands the risks he'll take and why he thinks they're worth it. I didn't delve deeply enough into postgame comments to know if this is the case or not, but nothing about the media hubbub guarantees that his guys weren't on his side. <br /><br />I think we can agree that the emotional key here is the team having faith in him when he's cutting against the grain. The three ways I can think of accomplishing this are 1) to win them over through consistently being right; 2) to be a mad, intuitive prophey-priest; and/or 3) to have them understand the decision-making process that led to the play. 1 and 2 he can't control, but 3 he can. I suspect Belichick may be too authoritarian to explain himself like this, but I may not be giving him enough credit. The reason I'm not on board with your argument, though, is that it presumes to know the mindset of his players in a way we can't. I don't know that you're wrong, but you can't prove you're right, so I'll go with the numbers and hope he's a good enough coach to bring his players along.Rough Justicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09697369830879236743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2859090234987178525.post-39985972931356358482009-12-14T12:19:11.200-08:002009-12-14T12:19:11.200-08:00While I love this post and heartily agree with mos...While I love this post and heartily agree with most of it, I would like to argue against Belichick's decision as the "right" one. It is true that based on fourth down percentage conversion, numbers, and the stoic science of stastistics, Belichick was intelligent in choosing to go for it. The tangible potential for success was greater than the potential for consequence, but multiply in the emotional risk, the existential crisis a team suffers if the ball IS turned over in the red zone with less than two minutes remaining and less than a touchdown lead. The defense would obviously have a much better chance of galvanizing and stopping Peyton Manning's attack following a punt than a turnover, particularly with two minutes left. In this play, Belichick took a bet (albeit with good odds) on Tom Brady that would immediately make or break the game, rather than allowing his entire team to have a greater say in the eventual outcome. I believe his risk was foolish, but more than that, I believe that he took this risk and failed because he as a coach is a scientist and a statistical thinker, not the mad, intuitive prophet-priest that a great risk-taker needs to be. I feel like he exercised knowledge but not wisdom... Don't get me wrong, the numbers don't lie, but neither do they tell the whole truth.David Sankeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17155408225468153928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2859090234987178525.post-71299503510177704702009-12-14T12:07:31.480-08:002009-12-14T12:07:31.480-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.David Sankeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17155408225468153928noreply@blogger.com